Chapter 1
Opening the program and moving between screens
The navigation links open the Retirement Plan, Spending Plan, Social Security Plan, Accounts, and Insights screens. Moving between screens does not discard the current workspace.
The opening screen follows the choice under User options → When the planner opens: show the saved-plan selector, open the last saved plan, or start with a blank plan. The selector is the privacy-conscious default because no saved financial information appears until a plan is selected.
Guided setup is the fastest way to create or revise a household. It collects household type and current retirement status, ages and retirement timing, income and account balances, Social Security, spending needs, special expenses, legacy goals, and assumptions.
Your first complete plan
- Gather current account statements, gross monthly retirement-income figures, Social Security estimates, and a household expense list. Use balances from the same date.
- Select Start a New Plan and follow the prompts to start from scratch or select an existing saved plan. When asked to choose a file, choose a recognizable filename and a folder you can find again.
- Choose A couple or One person, then select the Analysis Mode that answers your question. Complete Guided setup using Back and Continue to review each step before saving.
- Enter household names in the editable Spouse 1 Name and Spouse 2 Name headings. Your entries personalize the result labels and milestones. Keep each person’s ages, accounts, and benefits in the same column throughout the application.
- Build or open the Spending and Social Security Plans if you need detailed expenses or benefit estimates. Return to the Retirement Plan and check the amounts carried into the current analysis.
- Review Plan at a glance and expand Plan completeness to identify missing core information. Commit pending entries and select Recalculate if you are in Manual mode.
- Read the mode’s main result, spending gap, withdrawal rates, success percentage, and both graphs. Save the completed plan before experimenting with alternatives.
The manual’s contents links jump to individual chapters. The × close button stays visible while you scroll; Close manual at the end also returns to the application.
Button reference
- Retirement Plan, Spending Plan, Social Security Plan, Accounts, and Insights open those five main screens.
- Guided setup opens the step-by-step household editor; User manual opens these instructions; About identifies the planner and its creator.
- Saved locally opens saved-plan management. Start a New Plan begins a blank or saved plan; Save plan updates the selected plan; Save as… creates a separately named copy; Delete plan permanently removes the selected saved plan; Clear plan clears only the current workspace; and Link saved plans attaches saved Spending and Social Security Plans.
- One person/A couple selects household size. When Can I Retire?, Simple Retirement, Two Stage Strategy, and In Retirement select the planning question. In Guided Setup, Before retirement/In retirement identifies the household’s current status. Auto/Manual controls whether committed changes calculate immediately or wait for Recalculate. Undo reverses the most recent committed plan change.
- Today’s dollars/Future dollars changes graph display values. What does this mean? explains the success result. Edit accounts opens Guided Setup at the account information. Insight action buttons preview or apply the stated scenario change.
- Import/Export buttons load or download the named plan, CSV, or report data. Export summary opens the printable plan report; Assumptions report explains model inputs and timing.
- In Guided Setup, Back and Continue move between steps, and the × button closes the window. In planners and dialogs, Add, Remove, Save, Clear, Cancel, Close, and confirmation buttons perform the action stated on their labels.
Chapter 2
User options
Select User options beside Insights to personalize the program. These preferences are saved in this browser and apply to all plans on this device.
- Theme follows the system setting or forces Light or Dark mode.
- Text size changes interface density with Compact, Standard, or Large text.
- Default calculation mode chooses Auto or Manual. Auto recalculates after committed entries; Manual waits for Recalculate.
- Graph dollars chooses Today’s dollars or Future dollars and stays synchronized with the buttons above the retirement trajectory graph.
- When the planner opens chooses the plan selector, the last saved plan, or a blank plan.
- Backup reminders offers reminders every 30 or 90 days, or turns reminders off.
- Autosave on shutdown stores an unsaved recovery draft in this browser. It does not replace Save plan or an exported backup.
- Reset user options restores preference defaults without deleting saved plans.
Chapter 3
Choosing among the four analysis modes
Start a New Plan can start from scratch or from an existing saved plan. A confirmation explains what will be cleared. Other saved plans remain available.
Choose a plan from Select plan to load to open it. Link saved plans attaches separately saved Spending and Social Security Plans to the selected Retirement Plan. Clear plan clears the current workspace after confirmation; Delete plan permanently removes the selected saved plan.
The Household switch changes between one person and a couple. The four-part Analysis Modes control changes the question, planning horizon, visible inputs, summary emphasis, and recommendations. Choose the mode that matches the decision you are making now.
When Can I Retire?
Use it to answer: What is the earliest modeled retirement age that meets my selected success target and withdrawal-rate limit?
Enter: current ages, income and savings, account balances, expected retirement spending, Social Security estimates, life expectancy, returns, and risk assumptions.
Read first: the estimated retirement age. Then check modeled success, the required withdrawal rate, supported spending, and the weaker Monte Carlo path.
Best comparisons: save more, spend less, change the success target or withdrawal-rate limit, and review Social Security timing. The retirement age is a modeled result, not a promise or eligibility determination.
Simple Retirement
Use it to answer: How does my planned retirement perform over a fixed 30-year retirement period?
Enter: desired retirement ages, savings and contributions, account balances, retirement income, spending, returns, and risk assumptions.
Read first: required versus sustainable withdrawal rates over the same 30-year horizon. Then compare planned and supported spending and modeled success.
Best comparisons: retire later, save more, or spend less. Because the horizon is fixed at 30 years, use another mode when life expectancy or a later replenishment is central to the decision.
Two Stage Strategy
Use it to answer: Can the portfolio fund retirement until an expected asset sale or other replenishment, and remain viable afterward through life expectancy?
Enter: retirement ages, replenishment ages and net proceeds, spending before and after replenishment, life expectancy, income, balances, returns, and risk assumptions.
Read first: success through the replenishment checkpoint, the portfolio after proceeds arrive, and success through life expectancy. Compare withdrawal pressure before and after replenishment.
Best comparisons: reduce spending in either stage, retire later, save more, delay the replenishment, reduce its net proceeds, and test no replenishment. Treat uncertain proceeds conservatively.
In Retirement
Use it to answer: Are today’s retirement withdrawals and income sustainable through life expectancy?
Enter: current account balances, actual gross Social Security and other retirement income, current spending and costs, life expectancy, survivor spending, returns, taxes, and risk assumptions.
Read first: the current required withdrawal rate, supported spending, modeled success, and estimated depletion age if a path reaches zero.
Best comparisons: reduce flexible spending, update actual income and costs, review survivor assumptions, or test a different investment return. Salary-saving and later-retirement suggestions do not apply once retirement has begun.
Work through the mode you selected
When Can I Retire? Start with current ages and balances, then enter realistic employment income, contribution percentages, retirement spending, and future retirement income. Set the modeled success target and projected-retirement withdrawal-rate limit. Recalculate to search for an age that satisfies both constraints. Review the projected retirement-age result for each spouse and the associated Social Security figures. If no qualifying age is found, review missing inputs first, then test lower spending, higher savings, or different thresholds. Relaxing a threshold changes your acceptance standard; it does not add money to the plan.
Simple Retirement. Enter the desired retirement date for each person and check the household retirement checkpoint. The mode tests a fixed 30-year retirement period rather than searching for a new start date. Review planned versus supported spending and the required versus sustainable gross withdrawal rates. If the result is below your success target, save a comparison with a later retirement date or lower spending. Keep the 30-year horizon in mind when comparing it with modes that end at entered life expectancies.
Two Stage Strategy. Enter retirement timing, each applicable replenishment age and net amount, life expectancies, and spending needs on both sides of replenishment. Stage 1 covers the path toward retirement and then withdrawals up to the replenishment checkpoint. Stage 2 continues after replenishment through life expectancy. Use the two success indicators separately: the first assesses reaching replenishment without an earlier shortfall, while the second assesses the full lifetime plan. The second is a share of the modeled paths, not a conditional percentage calculated only among those that reached the sale. A later positive balance after proceeds arrive does not erase an earlier spending shortfall.
In Retirement. Start with today’s ages, balances, actual income, and spending. Answer the Social Security receiving question separately for each person and enter actual gross benefits for recipients. Review current withdrawal pressure and the remaining lifetime result; this mode has no future employment-saving period before household retirement. Update this analysis when balances, benefits, expenses, or survivor needs change. Enter assets already available now as current assets, and use Two Stage Strategy to test a future replenishment event.
Shared information and separate mode assumptions
Each choice is a complete analysis. Household names, detailed Spending Plan rows, and the Social Security benefit table are shared, while each mode keeps its own ages, balances, income, returns, spending targets, and other analysis assumptions. Switching modes restores that mode’s saved working values. Saving the Retirement Plan stores all four modes together; no mode must be completed before another can be used.
Do not compare two modes as if they answer the same question. A 30-year result can differ from a life-expectancy result because the horizons differ. Two Stage Strategy can differ because it adds proceeds and allows a separate post-replenishment spending target. When Can I Retire? changes the retirement date as part of its search, while the other modes use the retirement timing entered for that mode.
When spouses retire at different times, the earlier retiree’s employment income, contributions, and company match stop at that person’s retirement date. That portfolio continues growing at its in-retirement return without withdrawals, while the working spouse continues eligible contributions and company match. Household retirement withdrawals begin when the second spouse retires; retirement income received before then is not automatically deposited into the portfolio.
Using a two-stage strategy
Replenishment is a mid-retirement asset sale that drops cash into the portfolio so the plan can keep going.
A two-stage strategy intentionally uses retirement savings at a higher rate for a limited period because a later event is expected to replenish the portfolio. For example, withdrawals may fund or maintain an appreciating property or business, or cover living costs while wealth remains tied up in an asset that will be sold later. The strategy can be reasonable to test, but the future proceeds are an assumption—not a guaranteed source of retirement income.
- Use Two Stage Strategy as a stand-alone lifetime analysis. Enter current age and the planned retirement age; the portfolio accumulates until retirement, then the retirement spending plan begins.
- Enter the Retirement account replenishment age, expected net proceeds, and life expectancy. The proceeds are added at the replenishment age, and the same analysis continues through life expectancy.
- Use Pre-Retirement Return from current age until retirement. At retirement, the calculation switches to Projected In-Retirement Return and uses it through life expectancy.
- Run conservative alternatives with a later sale, a lower sale price, higher taxes and selling costs, and no sale. Compare the withdrawal rate, depletion timing, lower-percentile Monte Carlo paths, and modeled success in each version.
Two Stage Strategy risks to review
- Value risk: the asset may appreciate less than expected or lose value.
- Timing and liquidity risk: a property or business can take longer to sell, especially during a weak market or when cash is needed quickly.
- Net-proceeds risk: debt payoff, taxes, commissions, repairs, legal costs, and other transaction expenses can materially reduce the amount available to invest.
- Execution risk: health, family needs, market conditions, or a decision not to sell can prevent the planned event.
- Sequence-of-returns risk: heavy withdrawals combined with poor early investment returns can permanently weaken the portfolio before replenishment arrives.
- Concentration risk: relying on one property, business, or other asset makes the plan dependent on a single outcome.
Do not treat a higher bridge-period withdrawal rate as automatically sustainable. Keep a contingency plan—such as lower discretionary spending, another funding source, a flexible sale date, or an asset that could be sold sooner—and review tax and legal consequences with qualified professionals.
Chapter 4
Saving, recovery, and portable backups
Open a file or load a browser copy
- To open a file from your computer or OneDrive folder, go to the matching screen and select Open Plan. Retirement Plan opens a retirement JSON file; Spending Plan and Social Security Plan open their respective planner JSON files.
- Select the file. If there is unsaved work, review the replacement warning first. A second prompt may ask to replace a browser copy with the same name.
- Check the plan name and the file-save message below the navigation. In a browser with file linking, subsequent Save actions update the opened file, subject to permission. If the message says to use Save as…, choose the file again to establish future updates.
- To load a copy already stored in this browser, use the saved-plan selector instead of Open Plan. This does not require browsing the computer’s folders.
Save an update or keep an alternative
Save plan updates the selected saved plan. Confirm the displayed name before approving an overwrite. Save as… lets you choose a filename and location for a separate version; the selected filename becomes the plan name. For comparisons, use names such as “Retire at 65” and “Retire at 67.” Wait for the save-status message to confirm the result.
Link Spending and Social Security Plans
- Save each supporting plan from its own screen so it is available as a named choice.
- On Retirement Plan, select the retirement plan you intend to update and choose Link saved plans.
- Select the saved Spending Plan and Social Security Plan, or keep the current information for either one.
- Review the overwrite message and select Link and overwrite plan to place those details into the selected Retirement Plan. This does not edit the separately saved supporting plans.
After saving a new supporting plan, the application may ask whether to update the current Retirement Plan and link it. Choose Yes only when that is the retirement plan you intend to change. Saving a supporting plan and updating a Retirement Plan are distinct actions; verify the linked names and resulting totals rather than assuming all saved copies changed.
Keep recoverable copies
Save plan stores one complete retirement plan containing all four analysis modes. Household names, Spending Planner details, and Social Security Planner estimates are shared, while each mode keeps its own ages, balances, returns, and other analysis assumptions. Save plan updates the browser copy and any linked JSON file. Use Save as… to choose a folder and filename in Chrome or Edge. Your browser may ask for file permission again after reopening. Each file includes every analysis mode and the current Spending and Social Security tables.
The working copies of saved plans are kept in this browser’s local storage on this device. Files created with Save as… are stored in the folder you choose. They are not automatically stored in an online account or synchronized to another computer, browser, or browser profile.
Clearing only cached images and files normally leaves saved plans in place. Clearing cookies, site data, local storage, or all browsing data can permanently remove every plan saved in this browser. Browser privacy tools and automatic cleanup settings may have the same effect.
Use Export plan data regularly to create a backup JSON file. Exported plan files, spending CSV files, and downloaded reports are stored in the download location selected by the browser—usually the computer’s Downloads folder—and are not removed when browser site data is cleared. Use Import plan data to restore a saved or exported plan, or a Spending or Social Security template. After importing, use Save as… to link a file for future updates. Firefox and Safari use downloads rather than linked files.
For a OneDrive backup, choose a folder inside your local OneDrive folder when saving the JSON file, then check OneDrive’s sync status. Saving to that folder and completing cloud synchronization are separate steps. Keep dated copies before major changes, and verify a backup by opening it in the matching planner and checking its name, mode, balances, and tables. A plan-file backup contains planning data; it is different from a full backup of the application’s source files.
Chapter 5
Entering values and running calculations
Work through the household inputs
Enter age years and months separately where offered; 63 years and 4 months is not 63.4 decimal years. Use the age of the person whose column contains the field. A couple’s household retirement checkpoint occurs when both are retired; check both dates when comparing the individual account projections with the combined balance.
Account values are current balances, while Current Income is gross annual employment income. Contribution and employer-match percentages determine annual additions from that income. Enter pensions, annuities, rental cash flow, part-time income, and Social Security in the units printed beside each field. Gross income is before modeled taxes; net spending is the cash the household needs to spend.
Review inflation, pre-retirement and in-retirement returns, volatility, success target, and tax percentages explicitly. A success target sets the standard used to assess the model; it does not guarantee that outcome. Higher assumed returns can improve a result without making the underlying plan safer. Life expectancy sets a modeled horizon, and survivor spending controls how much household spending continues after the first modeled death.
Edit, commit, and check the result
Click a field and enter the replacement value. Press Tab to commit and move forward, Enter to commit, or click another field. Review a cleared field before leaving it: a committed blank numeric entry can become zero. If an entry is rejected, use the displayed range or validation message to correct it. Use Undo for a recent committed change; reload a saved plan when you want to restore a known saved version.
Use Manual mode when changing several assumptions together. Until you select Recalculate, previously calculated results may not represent the new inputs. Wait for the recalculation indicator to finish and review the calculation status before interpreting or exporting results.
In Auto mode, a valid number is applied and the plan recalculates when you press Enter, press Tab, or move to another field. Manual mode lets you make several changes before selecting Recalculate.
Dollar fields accept whole-dollar entries and format them after they are committed. Percent fields show the rate used by the model. Annual 401(k) and Roth additions are calculated from gross employment income and the entered contribution and employer-match percentages; legacy dollar contribution values in imported data are not separate inputs. A highlighted automatic value, such as a detailed Spending or Social Security result, opens the planner that calculates it. In In Retirement, choose whether each person already receives Social Security. Current recipients enter the actual gross monthly benefit directly; people who are waiting use the Social Security Plan estimate for their future claiming age.
Timing fields labeled years from now are measured from today, including years before retirement. This includes inheritance receipt, debt ending, and one-time expense occurrence. In In Retirement, Additional retirement assets available now are included in today’s starting portfolio; use Two Stage Strategy for future sale or replenishment proceeds.
Question-mark icons explain individual fields, while the Button reference in Chapter 1 and the task-specific chapters explain button functions. A red validation message means the entry is outside the allowed range or conflicts with another value—for example, retirement before current age or an expense ending before it starts.
Chapter 6
Spending Plan: expenses, filters, and sorting
Build and check a detailed budget
- Select Add expense, enter an expense name and amount, then choose a category and frequency. A $1,200 Annual expense represents $100 per month on a monthly basis; a $1,200 Monthly expense represents $14,400 per year.
- Choose Before retirement, In retirement, or Both for the row’s Stage. These choices refer to employment and retirement, not the two replenishment stages.
- Set Start year and End year as years from today. Zero starts now and a blank end means ongoing. For a One time expense, set the start year to the year the expense occurs.
- Choose Grows for an amount that rises with the inflation assumption, or Fixed for an unchanged nominal payment. A fixed payment has declining buying power in Today’s dollars.
- For Two Stage Strategy, check the replenishment-ending option for expenses that disappear at the sale, such as costs of maintaining the sold property. Check the spending totals at retirement and replenishment after making this change.
- Classify priority as Essential or Discretionary to organize the budget. Review the actual supported-spending result rather than assuming an Essential label prevents the model from scaling recurring spending.
- Return to Retirement Plan, confirm that detailed spending is selected where intended, and check the derived monthly targets. Save the supporting plan and update the intended Retirement Plan using the linking controls.
Avoid counting an expense twice. If a cost is in the detailed table, do not also enter the same cost in a separate healthcare, debt, long-term care, or one-time-expense add-on. Review timed costs in the report because a single monthly summary cannot describe every future year.
The Spending Plan replaces the direct monthly spending amount with a detailed total. Its rows make up that total; they are not added on top of it. The separate healthcare, long-term care, debt, and one-time expense fields on the Retirement Plan remain add-ons. Use Add expense for recurring, temporary, annual, or one-time costs. Each row includes Expense, Amount, Category, Frequency, Stage, Start year, End year, Inflation treatment, Priority, and Remove.
- Expense filter works like an Excel cell filter. Open the dropdown and check one or more expense names. Select all checks every value; Clear removes the name selections. “(Blank)” filters unnamed rows.
- Category filter uses the same checkbox pattern. Add category creates a reusable custom category.
- Minimum amount and Maximum amount limit visible rows by the entered expense amount.
- Sort expenses preserves Added order or sorts Name A–Z/Z–A and Amount low–high/high–low.
- Clear filters removes name, category, and amount filters and restores Added order. Clicking outside an open filter dropdown closes it.
Filtering and sorting change only the table view; they do not delete excluded expenses or change calculations. The status line reports how many expenses are visible. Use Clear all inputs only when you intend to remove all expense rows.
To paste from Excel, add a row, copy expense-name and amount columns, click the first Expense or Amount cell, and paste. New rows are added automatically. Import CSV replaces the table from a CSV and updates both monthly spending totals on the Retirement Plan; Export CSV downloads the current table. Save and load named Spending Plans from the controls at the top.
Chapter 7
Social Security Plan
Enter estimates and select a claiming age
- Use each person’s own benefit estimates. Enter monthly gross amounts in the correct spouse column for ages 62 through 70; do not enter an annual total in a monthly cell.
- To paste two spreadsheet columns, start in the first age-62 benefit cell. Check both columns and the age alignment after pasting. You can also use the Social Security CSV import and export controls.
- Return to the Retirement Plan or Guided Setup and set the claiming age, including months where available. Check the derived monthly benefit against the table. Changing a claiming age can change both the amount and when the income begins.
- For In Retirement, answer whether each person is currently receiving Social Security. If Yes, enter the current actual gross monthly benefit directly in that person’s Retirement Plan card, before Medicare deductions and withholding. If No, complete the benefit table and future claiming age.
- Save the Social Security Plan if you want to reuse it, and link it to the intended Retirement Plan. Open Plan on this screen loads a saved Social Security JSON file.
Enter each spouse’s estimated monthly benefit for claiming ages 62 through 70. Before retirement—or while retired but waiting to claim—Guided Setup uses the benefit for the selected claiming age and keeps each spouse in the correct column. In In Retirement, current recipients enter the actual gross monthly Social Security received directly in the Retirement Plan.
Survivor Social Security is simplified: after the first modeled death, the surviving spouse receives the larger entered benefit after age 60. The planner does not calculate a separate survivor claiming strategy, survivor claiming-age reductions, family maximums, or other SSA eligibility rules.
Where to get benefit estimates by retirement age
The best source is the Social Security Administration’s official my Social Security account. Each spouse should sign in to their own account, open Plan for Retirement, and review the personalized monthly retirement-benefit estimates based on their earnings record. The calculator shows estimates for age 62, full retirement age, and age 70 and lets the user test other claiming ages and expected future earnings. Copy the monthly estimate for each age from 62 through 70 into that spouse’s column in the Social Security Plan.
Someone who cannot use a personal account can visit the SSA’s official Benefit Calculators. The Quick Calculator provides a rough estimate, while the Online Calculator can use a manually entered earnings record. These estimates are planning inputs—not a benefit application or guarantee—and should be refreshed if the person’s earnings history or expected future income changes.
You may paste a benefit column from a spreadsheet beginning in the first age-62 cell. Save, Save as, load, or delete named Social Security Plans independently, then link them to a Retirement Plan. Clear all inputs clears the benefit table, while Return to Plan returns to the retirement summary.
Chapter 8
Mode-specific recommendations and Insights
Accounts summarizes the household’s entered retirement balances and account types. Use Guided Setup or the editable retirement-plan cards to change account values and contribution assumptions.
The recommendation card and Insights screen follow the selected Analysis Mode. They use the same mode-specific horizon and assumptions as the current calculation. Preview an action before applying it, then use Undo or reload a saved plan to return.
- When Can I Retire? recommendations focus on changes that may move the earliest modeled retirement age, especially spending and savings. The preview reruns the retirement-age search.
- Simple Retirement recommendations compare spending, savings, and later retirement over the fixed 30-year period.
- Two Stage Strategy recommendations distinguish spending before replenishment from spending afterward and keep the replenishment event in the analysis.
- In Retirement recommendations focus on current spending and portfolio longevity. They do not suggest earning more salary, saving from future wages, or retiring later.
Recommendation previews are scenario tests, not instructions. Review whether the proposed change is realistic, apply one change at a time, and compare the displayed withdrawal rate, supported spending, modeled success, and mode-specific result.
Chapter 9
Reading each mode’s retirement trajectory
Read each graph’s horizontal axis before comparing a point. The fixed-return trajectory includes the years from today; the Monte Carlo drawdown begins at household retirement, or today in In Retirement. A point marked 15 years on one graph need not be the same calendar checkpoint as 15 years on the other. Milestone labels include timing and ages to help identify corresponding events.
Milestone labels are positioned outside the curves and connected to vertical event markers. Follow the connector to its marker to identify the event date. Close dates can produce nearby markers; use the spouse name, event description, and timing text instead of the label’s left-to-right placement alone.
The green Portfolio line is the deterministic year-by-year path using the entered return assumptions, contributions, retirement income, expenses, and withdrawals. It is not a range of randomized market outcomes.
The gold 4% goal is the portfolio estimated to cover the modeled first-year gross withdrawal using a 4% starting-rate guideline. Vertical markers identify retirement and life-expectancy milestones. A falling line means withdrawals and expenses exceed growth and incoming contributions for that period; reaching the bottom indicates depletion in the deterministic path.
Use Today’s dollars to compare future balances by present-day buying power, or Future dollars to see nominal amounts that may appear on future statements. The User options Graph dollars preference controls the default. Hover or focus the graph and use the arrow keys to inspect year-specific values.
- When Can I Retire? starts retirement at the earliest modeled age found by the search. The pre-retirement segment shows accumulation until that result.
- Simple Retirement follows the entered retirement timing and ends after the fixed 30-year retirement period.
- Two Stage Strategy continues through life expectancy and marks replenishment when the entered net proceeds join the portfolio.
- In Retirement begins at today’s balances with no future accumulation period and continues through life expectancy.
Chapter 10
How to read Monte Carlo results by mode
The Monte Carlo retirement drawdown graph tests 1,000 randomized market paths. Each path varies the sequence of returns around the entered assumptions. This helps reveal sequence-of-returns risk: poor markets early in retirement can be more damaging than the same average returns arriving later.
- 10th percentile is the weaker line. About 10% of modeled paths are at or below it and about 90% are above it. Use it as a stress-case reference, not a prediction of the single worst possible outcome.
- Median is the middle line. Half the modeled paths are above it and half are below it. It is not an average and is not guaranteed.
- 90th percentile is the stronger line. About 90% of paths are at or below it and about 10% finish above it. It illustrates favorable sequences rather than an expected result.
- Modeled plan success is the percentage of paths that maintain the required balance through the planning horizon while satisfying the selected legacy target. It is not an investment return or a promise.
Read the lines from left to right. A widening space between them shows growing uncertainty. If the 10th-percentile line reaches zero early, weak sequences may deplete even when the median remains positive. If the median reaches zero, at least half the modeled paths have depleted by that year. A positive 90th-percentile ending value alone does not make a plan strong.
Compare success with the selected target, then examine when the lower and median lines approach zero and how much remains at the end. Improve a strained result by testing realistic changes to spending, savings, retirement dates, claiming ages, income, or assumptions—one change at a time. Hover or focus the graph and use arrow keys to inspect all three percentile values for a particular retirement year.
The success percentage always belongs to the selected mode’s horizon: the searched retirement age in When Can I Retire?, 30 retirement years in Simple Retirement, life expectancy with replenishment in Two Stage Strategy, or remaining life expectancy beginning today in In Retirement. Do not compare percentages across modes without first accounting for those different horizons and cash flows.
Chapter 11
Understanding each mode’s retirement summary
Use a consistent dollar basis
Today’s dollars express future money in current buying power. Future dollars include the intervening inflation. For example, $100 today corresponds to $100 × (1 + inflation rate)years in future dollars. Change the dollar-view control and read the unit labels before comparing the household total, spouse values, replenishment balance, or rate denominator. Small differences of a dollar can come from rounding.
A withdrawal rate compares an annual gross portfolio withdrawal with the portfolio balance at the same checkpoint, using the same dollar basis. It is not the household’s net monthly income divided by the portfolio. Social Security and other income can fund part of household spending without being portfolio withdrawals. The 4% reference uses first-year gross portfolio withdrawal divided by 0.04, expressed in the active dollar view.
At replenishment, compare the spending and income for that checkpoint. Future-dollar income incorporates the model’s applicable growth assumptions; Today’s dollars remove inflation. The Monte Carlo median balance can differ from the fixed-return balance even at the same date and in the same units, because the median reflects varying market sequences.
The green summary panel connects what you own today, what it may become by retirement, how much the plan is expected to spend, and how often the modeled plan succeeds. Read the figures together; no single number provides a complete retirement decision.
When Can I Retire? emphasizes the earliest modeled retirement age that clears both selected thresholds.
Simple Retirement emphasizes withdrawal capacity and success over 30 retirement years.
Two Stage Strategy emphasizes both the replenishment checkpoint and lifetime outcome.
In Retirement emphasizes current withdrawal pressure, lifetime success, and possible depletion age.
Portfolio values
- Current portfolio value is the total of the retirement-account balances entered for the household today. It is the starting point for investment growth and excludes future contributions that have not yet been made.
- Projected total account value when both spouses retire estimates the combined gross balance at the household retirement point, before retirement withdrawals begin. It reflects contributions, retirement timing, and assumed returns and follows the selected Today’s dollars or Future dollars display.
- Projected account value after replenishment is the fixed-return household balance at the Retirement Account Replenishment age after the net proceeds are added and before that year’s retirement withdrawal. It follows the selected Today’s dollars or Future dollars display so it can be compared with the Monte Carlo checkpoint on the same basis.
- Each spouse’s retirement accounts when household retirement starts comes from the same cash-flow-engine snapshot as the combined household value. The earlier retiree’s contributions stop at that person’s retirement, while the existing balance continues growing without withdrawals until the second spouse retires.
- Anticipated portfolio values show Monte Carlo median balances. In Two Stage Strategy, the replenishment checkpoint is captured after the sale proceeds are added and before that year’s withdrawal. The labels identify Today’s or Future dollars; about half of modeled outcomes are above the median and half below it.
- Required withdrawal rates in Two Stage Strategy use separate panels for retirement and the replenishment age. Each panel shows its gross rate plus the projected gross and net monthly withdrawal at that checkpoint. The replenishment panel uses that year’s spending and income needs and the portfolio available after the replenishment is added.
- Survivor spending: with a detailed Spending Plan, only active expenses marked Essential continue after the first spouse dies, at their full scheduled amounts. Discretionary expenses stop. Start and end years, inflation treatment, and Goes Away at Replenishment still apply: an expense already removed at replenishment is not restored or reduced a second time. The survivor percentage is disabled for detailed spending and applies only to direct monthly spending entry. Separate healthcare and long-term care add-ons continue at their scheduled amounts with detailed spending; avoid duplicating them in expense rows.
- Pre-tax and Roth 401(k) contributions share the employee elective-deferral limit. The calculator warns when entered percentages exceed the 2026 age-based limit but continues using the entered scenario so users can model an employer-specific plan and verify eligibility separately.
Spending and withdrawal pressure
- Monthly spending target starting at retirement (net) is the household’s planned spendable amount after modeled taxes. Healthcare, long-term care, debt, and one-time costs may be modeled separately, so this is not necessarily the household’s only cash need.
- Supported flexible spending per month starting at retirement is the estimated net amount the plan can support at the selected success target. With a detailed Spending Plan, it preserves the timing and one-time expenses while scaling recurring items proportionally; with direct entry, it uses the same amount every retirement month. The estimated monthly taxes beneath it explain part of the difference between gross withdrawals and spendable cash.
- Required gross portfolio withdrawal rate is the percentage of the retirement portfolio needed to fund spending and other modeled cash flows after Social Security, pensions, annuities, rental income, and part-time work. A higher required rate places more pressure on the portfolio.
- Sustainable gross rate is the model’s estimated withdrawal rate that meets the selected success target through the mode’s full planning horizon. In Two Stage Strategy, that horizon runs from retirement through life expectancy and includes the planned retirement account replenishment along the way. The net monthly amount beneath it translates the gross rate into estimated spendable income after taxes.
Success result
- Modeled success in Two Stage Strategy is shown twice. The first percentage is the share of Monte Carlo paths that retain a positive balance without an earlier spending shortfall through the Retirement Account Replenishment age. The second is the share that succeeds through life expectancy while also accounting for any selected legacy target. Other modes show the single success result that applies to their horizon.
- Plan horizon is the time covered by the selected mode. It is 30 retirement years in Simple Retirement and generally runs through life expectancy in Two Stage Strategy and In Retirement. When Can I Retire? searches possible starting ages, then evaluates the selected result through its applicable horizon.
- Your Clear Path message summarizes whether planned spending is within the modeled support level and calls attention to a gap or depletion risk. Use the underlying figures to understand why the message appears.
How to compare the numbers
- Compare the monthly spending target with supported flexible spending. Planned spending at or below the supported amount is more consistent with the selected target; a higher planned amount indicates a modeled funding gap.
- Compare required gross withdrawal rate with sustainable gross rate. Required below sustainable provides modeled breathing room. Required near sustainable leaves less room for unfavorable markets or higher expenses. Required above sustainable means the plan demands more than the target-risk model supports.
- Check whether modeled plan success meets the selected target. A result below target confirms that assumptions need attention even if the median ending portfolio is positive.
- Use the ending portfolio to judge resilience and legacy goals. Compare it with lower-percentile outcomes in the exported report because a healthy median can coexist with weak outcomes in poor market sequences.
- Reconcile the spouse retirement values with the household retirement projection. A gap between retirement dates can create years in which one spouse is retired while the other still contributes or earns income, changing withdrawals and growth.
Applying retirement logic: use changes that belong to the selected mode. Before retirement, test lower spending, later retirement, additional savings, and Social Security timing. In Two Stage Strategy, separately stress the replenishment date, net proceeds, and spending after replenishment. In Retirement, use actual income and balances and focus on spending, costs, survivor needs, and longevity. Favor changes that improve success and reduce the required-versus-sustainable rate gap without relying on unrealistic returns.
Chapter 12
What-If Scenario Lab
Compare alternatives without losing your starting point
- Save the current Retirement Plan and note the selected mode, spending target, success target, and dollar view.
- Use Save as… for a separately named alternative if you want to retain both versions. The lab edits the working analysis; do not treat it as an automatically separate saved plan.
- Change one assumption or one related group, commit the entries, and recalculate. Compare retirement timing, required withdrawal rate, supported spending, and success against the original.
- For Two Stage Strategy, test lower net replenishment proceeds and a later event, then test zero proceeds. Review the share of paths that fall short before the event as well as lifetime success.
- Save a useful alternative under its own name. Use Undo or load the original saved plan to return to the starting values.
The What-If Scenario Lab changes the current Analysis Mode so you can compare alternatives without guessing. Its title, explanation, visible fields, and results follow the selected mode. In Auto mode results update after committed changes; in Manual mode use Recalculate.
- For When Can I Retire?, use the fields to test what changes the searched retirement age.
- For Simple Retirement, compare inputs against the same 30-year retirement period.
- For Two Stage Strategy, test both retirement and replenishment assumptions through life expectancy.
- For In Retirement, update current balances, actual retirement income, spending, and lifetime assumptions.
Use Undo to reverse recent changes, or reload a saved Retirement Plan to return to a known version.
Chapter 13
Reports, printing, and responsible use
Before creating a report, commit pending entries and finish Recalculate if needed. Confirm the selected plan and mode. Open Assumptions report to review the inputs behind the result, or Export summary for the printable report. In the print window, choose a printer or Save as PDF, then inspect page layout before saving. A PDF is a readable snapshot; use a JSON plan file to reopen editable planning data.
Client view changes the presentation for reviewing a plan together. Check the selected plan before showing financial information and switch the control back when you want the normal working view. To review account balances, open Accounts; use Edit accounts or Guided Setup to change them.
Assumptions report explains key model inputs and methods. Export summary produces a detailed printable report containing plan inputs, milestones, taxes and cash flows, Monte Carlo percentiles, and explanations. Use the browser’s print or save-as-PDF controls when the report opens.
Review dates, dollar mode, tax treatment, inflation, return assumptions, volatility, success target, and the planning horizon before sharing results. Tax inputs are simplified effective rates; the planner does not calculate progressive federal or state brackets, required minimum distributions, Roth conversion tax, Medicare IRMAA, detailed capital-gains basis, or contribution-law limits. Clear Path provides educational estimates—not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice—and results depend on the information and assumptions entered.
Clear Path provides educational planning estimates and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.
SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFIT TABLE
Benefits by claiming age
Enter each spouse’s estimated monthly benefits from ages 62 through 70 in that spouse’s column. When you change a spouse’s Social Security claiming age on the Retirement Plan screen, the monthly income is pulled from that same spouse’s column in this Social Security Plan.
Saved Social Security Plans
Paste from Excel: Copy two columns of monthly benefit amounts for ages 62 through 70, click the first benefit cell, and paste. The first column fills Spouse 1 and the second fills Spouse 2.
Benefits are gross monthly estimates in today’s dollars. For retirement ages between whole years, the planner interpolates between the two surrounding table values. Retirement ages below 62 use age 62; ages above 70 use age 70.